Prior to the auction, the release of Fanya’s 18.6kt antimony ingots had aroused concerns for many Chinese antimony suppliers amidst a declining antimony price, with the Asian Metal Chinese ex-works prices for antimony ingot (99.65% Sb) already down 29.7% year-to-date by end-August.
With prices approaching a similar level to the previous low-point experienced in 2016, the question remains: How far can the antimony price decline? Especially concerning export markets, which are feeling further downward pressure from a depreciating Chinese renminbi. The release of the Fanya material adds additional downside risk as it is equivalent to over 15% of annual primary antimony supply. Market participants and producers had adopted a conservative production plan with a “wait-and-see” attitude until the auction took place.
With the current antimony price already putting many Chinese producers under strain, Minmetals’ next action of how to deal with this large stockpile remains a big question. Minmetals, itself a major integrated producer of antimony ores, ingot and trioxide, may have secured strategic stock to weather low prices.
More information on the antimony market and the supply-demand dynamics that govern the industry can be found in Roskill’s 13th edition of the Antimony: Global Industry, Markets & Outlook published in 2018, which is kept up to date with quarterly reports and access to the analysts.